PS4, PS5 and What Lies Ahead For PSVR and PSVR2

For the most part, Sony IR Day 2018 went underway replete with the standard technobabble, industry insights, future company plans, and what not. As with many high-profile technology events tho’, there was to be a bang—that traditional sound bite that reporters run away with and lights up Twitter feeds.

On that late spring afternoon in Tokyo, the source was none other than Sony (SIE) CEO, John ‘Tsuyoshi’ Kodera. “[The PlayStation 4 is] finally entering the final phase of its console life cycle,” he said. That kindled a firestorm: just as pretext and context were effortlessly dismissed.

But… It’s been coming

The flurry of discussion that greeted the reveal is certainly understandable. But there’s hardly an industry watcher, PlayStation fan, or console gamer who didn’t conceptualize the possibility that Sony had already started developing the next-gen console. Development of the PlayStation 4 started in 2008. Sony released it in 2013.

Sure, the PlayStation 4 has been a phenomenon, breaking records with reckless abandon. After its release, it became the fastest selling console ever. Its controller, the DualShock 4, is the best-selling gamepad ever. Even after Kodera’s statement, God of War then Spider-Man obliterated software sales records in quick succession.

If it wasn’t already apparent, the PS4 is doing great. Which is doubly admirable in light of the fact that every analyst was predicting doom and gloom for console gaming before its release. This Time piece published less than a fortnight before PS4’s announcement did not age well.

That said: it’s been five (5) years since the PS4’s release. In console years, that’s old—barely-can-walk kind of old. Sony has already released two traditional mid-generation updates—the PlayStation 4 Slim and PlayStation 4 Pro. As Kodera reiterated in October, “At this point, what I can say is it’s necessary to have a next-generation hardware.”

A new angle: the PlayStation VR

Still, the next generation jump isn’t solely about consoles, titles, and cloud gaming. There is a new product category in its infancy with lots of potential that needs all the support it can get. PlayStation VR may not be the massive hit Sony hoped it’d be, but it’s no slouch either.

It hit the 3 million magic sales number back in August, it has a relatively small but vocal fan following, and Sony’s support for the PSVR has been strong to date (Sony expects to have 280 VR games available by year end).

The bone of contention appears to be how to take it to the next level and not let it go the way of the PlayStation handhelds (we’ve got bad news about Vita by the way). More specifically, the debate boils down to whether Sony should launch the PSVR2 before or after the PS5 and which is the better option.

Going by PlayStation history, it’d be safe to put one’s money on the PSVR2 launching with or after the PS5. But are there credible reasons why Sony should bite the bullet and launch the second-gen PlayStation VR 2 before the PS5?

A tepid industry

Vive is one of the pillars keeping HTC afloat, Oculus is one of Facebook’s promising avenue for diversification, and Samsung is being Samsung with the Gear VR. If VR is to become the next big thing as touted, the industry certainly needs to step up and do more.

Sony knows firsthand why this is urgent. They’ve admitted that they find the PSVR sales underwhelming—3 million is a lot, but with an 80+ million PS4 ownership base, the bean counters at Tokyo reasonably expected a better performance. Interestingly, this is after the PSVR had two price cuts within a one-year period—the first in August last year and another early this year in March.

It is getting increasingly apparent that for the VR to enter its golden age (enter the mainstream); Sony needs to roll its sleeves and take it by the scruff of the neck. This will draw similarities to Apple and the smartwatch industry. The industry eschewed great promise at the start, but it didn’t take off dramatically as was expected.

The original Apple Watch pulled in good numbers much like the current original PSVR (both outsold the competition). But the Apple Watch wasn’t quite there. It divided critics as well. The Apple Watch Series 1 and 2 brought marked improvements and set the ball rolling. Then the Apple Watch Series 3 made Apple’s smartwatch the de facto leader. The recently released Apple Watch Series 4 blew minds away.

From a nascent industry that seemed gimmicky, the smartwatch industry is fledging and almost all Apple at this point. That could be the VR industry and Sony in the next few generations. And for that to happen, Sony might have to release a strikingly improved PSVR2 now rather than later. Especially as Microsoft continues to drag its feet; HTC continues to price its Vive headsets perplexingly high (have you seen the pricing of the Vive Focus); and while the Oculus Go is an impressive entry-level VR headset, it’s not that affordable gaming powerhouse that the PSVR2 could and should be.

On the other hand, however, Sony might have to be more concerned about…

Doing it right

If there’s one thing both camps can agree on, it is that the second generation PlayStation VR has to be considerably better than the first-gen VR. We’ve already had an incremental update. What the market needs now is a generational leap.

And FWIW, that at least implies:

•        Better viewing—we’re talking higher resolution and pixel density—the recently announced 1,001ppi, 2.2msec (compared to at or above 18msec of current VR), 120Hz refresh rate screen by JDI (a consortium that Sony has a stake in) sounds like a good fit for obvious reasons.
•        Wireless connectivity—one of the primary changes Sony made to the PlayStation VR 2017 updated model (CUH-ZVR2) was making the connection cable more streamlined and slimmer. The logical next step is going wireless, a feature that premium VR headsets started getting recently.
•        Improved tracking—the PSVR lags behind the PC VR competition. It’s not marginal, it’s a chasm. The PlayStation Camera does a decent job, but is admittedly rough around the edges. This is to be expected of first-gen tech. Cutting the cord should also allow for room-scale 6DoF tracking, which means support for more immersive experiences and a larger game library.
•       Upgraded controllers—Sony’s recent patents to improve its Move controllers (to go toe to toe with the Oculus and Vive controllers) also offer insight into efforts to confer enhanced finger tracking and a bespoke “reaction force generator” for better haptic feedback.

Unfortunately, the PS4 Pro barely offers enough grunt to power the PSVR. The 1080p almost takes it to breaking point: a PSVR 2 with at least a QHD (1440p) resolution, better resource-intensive performance, and several other tech improvements may be too much for the PS4 Pro. Bottom line, it may be impractical to make a next gen VR headset based on a retiring console platform.

A rumor from reliable tipster SemiAccurate stating that Sony intends to bake in VR-tech at the silicon level adds weight to that point. If Sony intends to market VR as an integral part of its PS5 console offering, this is necessary and just as important to have a VR hardware built from the ground up to take advantage of this deep integration.

Fears about a lack of backwards compatibility may be credible (the PS3 drop anyone) but could prove to be unfounded as there’s evidence of Sony patenting backwards compatibility to make PS4 games playable on the PS5. It stands to reason that Sony will extend that ability to the PS uniVRse, to at the very least offer PS VR 2 buyers a large library of games from the get go.

And even if the PS5 release schedule turns out to be in 2020 or 2021, Sony could always offer another marginal VR refresh sometime next year to stay competitive.

A true PSVR 2 or a next-gen PSVR in name only

In a nutshell, any new VR release for the PS4 is unlikely to take full advantage of the major hardware changes coming to the PS5. This will inevitably mean compromises of some sort that many may find avoidable. It’d also make the upgrade feel more like a bridge to the next generation rather than the next generation itself, which isn’t ideal.

Interestingly, there may be cause for such an upgrade. VR is unlike console gaming. Annual or biennial generation jumps are the norm, as opposed to the half-a-decade plus jumps in console gaming. With the release date for the PS5 still up in the air, Sony could watch its PSVR lead crumble if it waits until as late as 2024 to place the PSVR 2 on store shelves (three years after a possible 2021 PS5 release). Nonetheless, any such upgrade will be taken by the market as a niche-centric PSVR refresh, instead of the PSVR 2 that’s supposed to make mainstream VR adoption a thing.

As such, it is increasingly likely that a PS5 release in 2019 or 2020 would be accompanied by a PSVR 2 launch. The PSVR 2 getting a release any later than a year or two after the PS5 release is unlikely as Sony simply does not have that luxury of time. Compared to the PlayStation console, the PlayStation VR is a different product with different competitors.

The PSVR2 will most likely only pair with the PS5 and other mid-gen PS5 console upgrades. However, the PSVR2 would likely support both PSVR2 and current PSVR games. New iterations of popular games would be released on both platforms (cross-generational), but there’d definitely be games exclusive to the newer PSVR2 as well.