For the most part,
Sony IR
Day 2018 went underway replete with the standard technobabble,
industry insights, future company plans, and what not. As with many
high-profile technology events tho’, there was to be a bang—that traditional
sound bite that reporters run away with and lights up Twitter feeds.
On that late
spring afternoon in Tokyo, the source was none other than Sony (SIE) CEO, John
‘Tsuyoshi’ Kodera. “[The PlayStation 4 is] finally entering
the final phase of its console life cycle,” he said. That kindled a
firestorm: just as pretext and context were effortlessly dismissed.
But… It’s been coming
The flurry of discussion
that greeted the reveal is certainly understandable. But there’s hardly an
industry watcher, PlayStation fan, or console gamer who didn’t conceptualize
the possibility that Sony had already started developing the next-gen console. Development
of the PlayStation 4 started in
2008. Sony released it in 2013.
Sure, the
PlayStation 4 has been a phenomenon, breaking records with reckless abandon.
After its release, it became the fastest
selling console ever. Its controller, the DualShock 4, is the best-selling
gamepad ever. Even after Kodera’s statement, God
of War then Spider-Man
obliterated software sales records in quick succession.
If it wasn’t
already apparent, the PS4 is doing great. Which is doubly admirable in light of
the fact that every analyst was predicting doom
and gloom for console gaming before its release. This Time piece
published less than a fortnight before PS4’s announcement did not age well.
That said: it’s
been five (5) years since the PS4’s release. In console years, that’s old—barely-can-walk kind of old. Sony has
already released two traditional mid-generation updates—the PlayStation 4 Slim
and PlayStation 4 Pro. As Kodera reiterated
in October, “At this point, what I can say is it’s necessary to have a
next-generation hardware.”
A new angle: the PlayStation VR
Still, the next
generation jump isn’t solely about consoles, titles, and cloud gaming. There is
a new product category in its infancy with lots of potential that needs all the
support it can get. PlayStation VR may not be the massive hit Sony hoped it’d
be, but it’s no slouch either.
It hit the 3
million magic sales number back in August, it has a relatively small
but vocal fan following, and Sony’s support for the PSVR has been strong to
date (Sony expects to have 280 VR games available by year end).
The bone of
contention appears to be how to take it to the next level and not let it go the
way of the PlayStation handhelds (we’ve got bad
news about Vita by the way). More specifically, the debate boils
down to whether Sony should launch the PSVR2 before or after the PS5 and which
is the better option.
Going by
PlayStation history, it’d be safe to put one’s money on the PSVR2 launching
with or after the PS5. But are there credible reasons why Sony should bite the
bullet and launch the second-gen PlayStation VR 2 before the PS5?
A tepid industry
Vive is one of the
pillars keeping HTC afloat,
Oculus is one of Facebook’s promising avenue for diversification, and Samsung
is being Samsung with the Gear VR. If VR is to become the next big thing as
touted, the industry certainly needs to step up and do more.
Sony knows
firsthand why this is urgent. They’ve admitted that they find the PSVR sales underwhelming—3
million is a lot, but with an 80+ million PS4 ownership base, the bean counters
at Tokyo reasonably expected a better performance. Interestingly, this is after
the PSVR had two price cuts within a one-year period—the first
in August last year and another
early this year in March.
It is getting
increasingly apparent that for the VR to enter its golden age (enter the
mainstream); Sony needs to roll its sleeves and take it by the scruff of the
neck. This will draw similarities to Apple and the smartwatch industry. The
industry eschewed great promise at the start, but it didn’t take off
dramatically as was expected.
The original Apple
Watch pulled in good numbers much like the current original PSVR (both outsold
the competition). But the Apple Watch wasn’t quite there. It divided critics as
well. The Apple Watch Series 1 and 2 brought marked improvements and set the
ball rolling. Then the Apple Watch Series 3 made Apple’s smartwatch the de
facto leader. The recently released Apple Watch Series 4 blew minds away.
From a nascent
industry that seemed gimmicky, the smartwatch industry is fledging and almost
all Apple at this point. That could be the VR industry and Sony in the next few
generations. And for that to happen, Sony might have to release a strikingly
improved PSVR2 now rather than later. Especially as Microsoft continues to drag
its feet; HTC continues to price its Vive headsets perplexingly high (have you
seen the pricing
of the Vive Focus); and while the Oculus Go is an impressive entry-level VR
headset, it’s not that affordable gaming powerhouse that the PSVR2 could and
should be.
On the other hand,
however, Sony might have to be more concerned about…
Doing it right
If there’s one thing
both camps can agree on, it is that the second generation PlayStation VR has to
be considerably better than the first-gen VR. We’ve already had an incremental
update. What the market needs now is a generational leap.
And FWIW, that at
least implies:
- Better viewing—we’re talking higher resolution and pixel density—the recently announced 1,001ppi, 2.2msec (compared to at or above 18msec of current VR), 120Hz refresh rate screen by JDI (a consortium that Sony has a stake in) sounds like a good fit for obvious reasons.
- Wireless connectivity—one of the primary changes Sony made to the PlayStation VR 2017 updated model (CUH-ZVR2) was making the connection cable more streamlined and slimmer. The logical next step is going wireless, a feature that premium VR headsets started getting recently.
- Improved tracking—the PSVR lags behind the PC VR competition. It’s not marginal, it’s a chasm. The PlayStation Camera does a decent job, but is admittedly rough around the edges. This is to be expected of first-gen tech. Cutting the cord should also allow for room-scale 6DoF tracking, which means support for more immersive experiences and a larger game library.
- Upgraded controllers—Sony’s recent patents to improve its Move controllers (to go toe to toe with the Oculus and Vive controllers) also offer insight into efforts to confer enhanced finger tracking and a bespoke “reaction force generator” for better haptic feedback.
Unfortunately, the
PS4 Pro barely offers enough grunt to power the PSVR. The 1080p almost takes it
to breaking point: a PSVR 2 with at least a QHD (1440p) resolution, better
resource-intensive performance, and several other tech improvements may be too
much for the PS4 Pro. Bottom line, it may be impractical to make a next gen VR
headset based on a retiring console platform.
A rumor
from reliable tipster SemiAccurate
stating that Sony intends to bake in VR-tech at the silicon level adds weight
to that point. If Sony intends to market VR as an integral part of its PS5 console
offering, this is necessary and just as important to have a VR hardware built
from the ground up to take advantage of this deep integration.
Fears about a lack
of backwards compatibility may be credible (the PS3
drop anyone) but could prove to be unfounded as there’s evidence of Sony
patenting
backwards compatibility to make PS4 games playable on the PS5. It
stands to reason that Sony will extend that ability to the PS uniVRse, to at the very least offer PS VR 2
buyers a large library of games from the get go.
And even if the
PS5 release schedule turns out to be in 2020 or 2021, Sony could always offer
another marginal VR refresh sometime next year to stay competitive.
A true PSVR 2 or a next-gen PSVR in name
only
In a nutshell, any
new VR release for the PS4 is unlikely to take full advantage of the major
hardware changes coming to the PS5. This will inevitably mean compromises of
some sort that many may find avoidable. It’d also make the upgrade feel more
like a bridge to the next generation rather than the next generation itself,
which isn’t ideal.
Interestingly,
there may be cause for such an upgrade. VR is unlike console gaming. Annual or
biennial generation jumps are the norm, as opposed to the half-a-decade plus
jumps in console gaming. With the release date for the PS5 still up in the air,
Sony could watch its PSVR lead crumble if it waits until as late as 2024 to place
the PSVR 2 on store shelves (three years after a possible 2021 PS5 release). Nonetheless,
any such upgrade will be taken by the market as a niche-centric PSVR refresh,
instead of the PSVR 2 that’s supposed to make mainstream VR adoption a thing.
As such, it is
increasingly likely that a PS5 release in 2019 or 2020 would be accompanied by
a PSVR 2 launch. The PSVR 2 getting a release any later than a year or two
after the PS5 release is unlikely as Sony simply does not have that luxury of
time. Compared to the PlayStation console, the PlayStation VR is a different
product with different competitors.
The PSVR2 will
most likely only pair with the PS5 and other mid-gen PS5 console upgrades.
However, the PSVR2 would likely support both PSVR2 and current PSVR games. New
iterations of popular games would be released on both platforms
(cross-generational), but there’d definitely be games exclusive to the newer
PSVR2 as well.
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